What Is Affecting the CPS Data on Shifts in Immigrant and Native-Born Populations?

In September 2025, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released an updated projection for net immigration, forecasting that the immigrant population age 16 and older would grow by 408,000 in 2025. However, according to Current Population Survey data, the U.S. immigrant population age 16 and older fell by 1.86 million people between January and November 2025—dropping from 50.40 million to 48.54 million. This decline was entirely concentrated among non-naturalized immigrants.¹ (See the table below).

At the same time, CPS data show the native-born population age 16 and older rose by 3.8 million, from 222.3 million to 226.1 million—this increase was far more than the CBO's projected growth of about 1 million for this group over this period.² Furthermore, these numbers suggest a staggering, almost threefold increase in native-born population growth compared with average growth (2014-19) before the COVID-19 pandemic.

				Net Changes in U.S. Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population (16 and Older) in 2025 (In Millions)
	Native Born	Foreign Born (All)	Foreign Born
			Naturalized	Non-Naturalized
January–November 2025	3.80	-1.86	0.36	-2.22
Prepandemic Average (2014–19)	1.48	0.47	0.83	-0.36
SOURCES: Current Population Survey microdata from IPUMS, and authors’ calculations.

These numbers have sparked considerable debate among economists and researchers. Some, like Jed Kolko at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, contend the numbers are implausibly large and likely reflect measurement issues rather than an actual mass exodus.

To gain a better understanding of these numbers, both for natives and immigrants, this blog post looks carefully at how the CPS works. We then compare the CPS estimates for net immigration with our own estimates based on a different source: U.S. payroll data. Our analysis suggests that the drop in the immigrant population is overstated largely because of a drop in participation of non-naturalized immigrants in the CPS who remain in the country but are wary of participating in government data collection. As a consequence, the increase in the native-born population is also overstated: The CPS weighting system must match predetermined population totals, so when immigrant numbers fall, native-born numbers must rise. Keep reading here.