‘We are in trouble.’ St. Louis region’s slowing population growth spurs call for action

By Jacob Barker | Post-Dispatch

ST. LOUIS — A growing number of civic and business groups are highlighting the metropolitan area’s stagnant population as an urgent problem, and they’re pushing the region’s planning organization to do something about it.

Backers of the effort say they have so far secured a dozen resolutions from professional associations and civic organizations asking the East-West Gateway Council of Governments to coordinate a plan that both puts population growth at the center of the regional agenda and recommends steps to reverse its stall.

It’s the latest in a long history of efforts here to reverse demographic headwinds that have beset many of the nation’s former industrial powerhouses. The St. Louis metropolitan area, anchored by what once was one of the nation’s largest cities, has grown far slower than many metro areas, and a falling birth rate threatens to tip it into population decline in the near future. 

“We are in trouble,” said Chip Casteel, a veteran public policy executive who is working on the latest effort. “We don’t recognize we are in trouble. But we are in trouble.”

Many of the previous attempts to reverse the slide focused on St. Louis city. Now that a declining birth rate threatens to saddle even suburban jurisdictions and businesses with some of the issues the city has grappled with for decades, they’re sounding the alarm.

A lot of the interest in the issue is coming from St. Charles County businesses and governments, Casteel said.

“Their growth has now slowed to a trickle, and they see it coming and they want to do something about it,” he said.

He is working with Joe Blanner, a lawyer and co-founder of industry group Construction Forum, to build support for a push to get East-West Gateway to add a regional plan for population growth to its portfolio of initiatives, similar to how it facilitated the Save Lives Now! regional crime reduction strategy.

“In the history of St. Louis, we’ve never had a situation where regionwide, we were able to come together on the type of scale that we’re talking about here,” Blanner said. “If we can actually accomplish this, it will be very meaningful.”

Fewer immigrants

In the past, St. Louis could count on its birth rate to exceed population losses due to deaths and outmigration. Since the pandemic, that is no longer the case. Regional population is poised to dip into decline as deaths continue to outpace births in the region, plunging it into what experts call “demographic winter.” 

Last year, the region notched a better-than-normal gain in population of 6,400 people to remain just over 2.8 million residents, according to U.S. Census estimates. That happened because of strong international migration numbers that offset losses caused by 2,200 more people dying than being born and by people moving away from St. Louis. But immigrants are unlikely to stanch future population losses here, experts say, pointing to Trump administration policies that are choking off refugee programs and other immigration channels. 

Absent efforts to reverse the trends, there could be significant economic impact in 20 to 25 years, said Ness Sándoval, a St. Louis University sociology professor who studies the region’s demographics.

“This is the first time in St. Louis’ history that it’s in a state of natural population decline,” Sándoval said. “Project forward, you’re looking at a significant decline in high school graduates going out into the workforce for our region. So if you don’t have people moving in, then it’s going to be a shock for a lot of employers, who are going to be like, where are the workers? The workers were never born.”

He called the effort to get East-West Gateway to adopt the issue and study it “important,” and said the planning group was among the best positioned to build a regional consensus. Reversing the trend will be difficult, Sándoval said, “so you have to start these conversations now.”

Building support

Groups endorsing the move to get East-West Gateway behind a regional effort include St. Louis’ Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and Asian American Chamber of Commerce, and construction associations like the Engineers Club of St. Louis and the SITE Improvement Association.

“It’s a forward-thinking approach,” said Kevin McMullin, director of industry relations at SITE. “Population is critical to growth and our economic vitality.” 

Read more.